The year was 2004 and UPA had
succeeded in forming the government. I had joined my engineering college. Located
in Noida, a region which mirrored India’s coming of age and magical growth rate.
Commentators and economists were projecting that India would be among the top 3
economies of the world. With malls featuring global brands, numerous call centres,
IT companies and real estate projects mushrooming across the city & NCR. On
campus the mood was even better. IT giants like Infosys, HCL and others were
flocking to our campus and hiring in hundreds.
The economy was performing
brilliantly with growth rates of 9.5% in FY 05 and 06. Among the numerous chain
emails floating, there was one peculiar one which caught the fancy of most
fellow students. It portrayed the resume of the new Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan
singh. It ran into several pages and seemed to be perfect with one achievement
after the other. Indeed, he followed it up with a few good moves notably the nuclear
deal. During UPA I, the biggest villain (or rather the scapegoat) was the left
front with its anti west and industry unfriendly policies.
As I write this (2013, 10 years
later), the scenario both in sentiments and in reality seem to have done a
barrel roll. Much has been written about the bad state of economy (which grew
at a rate of 4.96%), governance, policy logjams etc. But the one thing that stands out starkly is
the fall of Mr. Manmohan singh from being a national hero of sorts about whom
all of us, the educated middle class felt proud about. Who has been shunned by
the public, media and even his own party. He is facing tough times ahead, personally,
with his name being dragged in the cola scam and maybe a few more in the not
too distant future.
Personally(and biased), the future
does not appear as bright, exciting & full of prospects as it did 10 years
ago to the starry eyed yet-to-be engineer. I wonder if this truly has been the “Lost
decade” or just the beginning of an elongated Stagflation period of India’s
economy.
P.S : To an extent it might be wrong to compare the GDP of a few good years with that of the last 3 years but there are numerous other factors like twin deficits, consumption rate , industry/services growth rates, gross fixed capital formation , job creation , inflation, overall investment climate etc which point to a bleak scenario.
A couple of good articles today:
