Recently I came across a very witty piece of Data compilation by Goldman Sacs on few statistics, basically market prices, index levels, debt rates et.al between 2010 and 2015. Ignoring the fallacy of judgement based on only 2 time series data points(ignoring the trend patterns/inflation etc) it does throw some interesting numbers. Some of them would have seem absurd if someone would have predicted them in 2010.
The data can be found here : G.S Data
Some of the interesting ones:
1. Brent oil has dropped by 60%. Even by commodity standard (with higher Vols than other asset classes) this is a huge dip. On hindsight we can all attribute the drop on specific reasons, but my God, how has it changed. I remember debates and articles predicting Oil going to 150-200 $/barrel leading to a flourishing shale oil industry, which is in a big problem now. Moreover with Oil stable at over 100$/barrel for a good amount of time ~2011 to 2014, the figure is all the more stark.
2. Iron Ore had dropped a whopping 77%. Again the blame is on demand side weakness led by stagnation in the west and slowdown in emerging economies.
3. Sovereign bond yields have dived even further with German Bund at 60 bps yields down by 235 bps. This was probably expected due to the perpetual Eurozone drama going on since 2010.
4.The cost of technology and its penetration have moved as expected with a 58% drop in cellular phone/equipment prices and a huge jump in smartphone penetration. Huge drops in prices of newer technologies like LED lamps, Solar batteries et.al. The rise of Tech businesses in terms of users, revenues and market caps(Apple is now the biggest company compared to Petrochina).
Taking the idea forward, I have compiled some data points of Interest from an Indian perspective, particularly which affect us on an everyday basis.
* The above data is compiled from Various sources available freely on the web and accuracy, though intended, is not guaranteed. The 2016 data is as on Jan 1st wherever possible or latest available for 2015.
The data can be found here : G.S Data
Some of the interesting ones:
1. Brent oil has dropped by 60%. Even by commodity standard (with higher Vols than other asset classes) this is a huge dip. On hindsight we can all attribute the drop on specific reasons, but my God, how has it changed. I remember debates and articles predicting Oil going to 150-200 $/barrel leading to a flourishing shale oil industry, which is in a big problem now. Moreover with Oil stable at over 100$/barrel for a good amount of time ~2011 to 2014, the figure is all the more stark.
2. Iron Ore had dropped a whopping 77%. Again the blame is on demand side weakness led by stagnation in the west and slowdown in emerging economies.
3. Sovereign bond yields have dived even further with German Bund at 60 bps yields down by 235 bps. This was probably expected due to the perpetual Eurozone drama going on since 2010.
4.The cost of technology and its penetration have moved as expected with a 58% drop in cellular phone/equipment prices and a huge jump in smartphone penetration. Huge drops in prices of newer technologies like LED lamps, Solar batteries et.al. The rise of Tech businesses in terms of users, revenues and market caps(Apple is now the biggest company compared to Petrochina).
Taking the idea forward, I have compiled some data points of Interest from an Indian perspective, particularly which affect us on an everyday basis.
| 2010 | 2016/2015 | Delta | |
| Price of Petrol | 47.4 | 59.4 | 25.1% |
| Price of Diesel | 35.5 | 45.0 | 27.0% |
| NIFTY Index | 5232.2 | 7963.2 | 52.2% |
| 10 Year G-Bond yield | 7.6 | 7.8 | 2.5% |
| Inflation (CPI% YOY change) | 9.5 | 5.4 | -43.6% |
| Consumer Food Price Index(2012 series) | 86.6 | 131.3 | 51.7% |
| GDP, current prices(USD Billion) | 1708.5 | 2182.6 | 27.8% |
| GDP Per capita(PPP, Current Prices USD) | 4494.0 | 6209.4 | 38.2% |
| Population(Billion Persons) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 8.6% |
| India's Richest person | Mukesh Ambani | Mukesh Ambani | |
| Facebook Users in India(Million) | 8.0 | 125.0 | 1462.5% |
| Biggest company(Market Cap) | RIL | TCS | |
| Team India ICC ranking(Tests) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| USD-INR rate | 46.1 | 67.9 | 47.2% |
* The above data is compiled from Various sources available freely on the web and accuracy, though intended, is not guaranteed. The 2016 data is as on Jan 1st wherever possible or latest available for 2015.
